“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.” Leonardo da Vinci. Adopted by Steve Jobs.
A Wolf was injured from a fight with a Bear concerning a meal.
Unable to move, the Wolf called to a little Lamb who was passing nearby, “Kind Lamb, you see that I am hurt. I sweetly beg you to fetch me a drink of water for my strength, so I may get a simple meal.”
“A meal?” said the Sheep. “That means me, I suppose. And, the water to wash me down your throat. No thank you very much.”
Moral of the Story: Logical conclusions from natural conditions.
Introduction – The Essential Aesop – Epilogue
Why We Loved It: Even an injured Wolf has his teeth, so the soft Lamb must be wise. This little fable encapsulates much of all the Theory of Aesop, entwining two formative critical lessons. If these points are wisdom are not grasped, neither is Aesop grasped.
1. Prediction.
Wisdom is about thoughtful prediction.
A prediction is based upon a tendency, which is a statistic of history. What is a thing’s tendency? Wisdom is not about guessing correctly. Guessing correctly is just getting lucky. A foolish decision can turn out well, by accident; a wise decision can turn out badly, by accident. For this reason, a sage never regrets a wise decision that ends badly.
The problem for us is that our thoughts are not clear, jaded by emotions and passions. Desire tends to cloud a decision—desire cooks the wisdom books. Wisdom understands the role of the emotions, but emotions serve wisdom. Wisdom is a practical art that assesses and predicts, which must be performed with clarity. Thus the adage, ; “Sapientia est ferculum quod frigidum aptissimum est.” (“Wisdom is a dish best served cold.”)
The wise Wolf played to the young Sheep’s soft compassion or naivety, predicting that the Lamb was likely to make a foolish mistake. A good play for the Wolf. He took the shot. “Kind Lamb, you see that I am hurt,“ said the Wolf, preying upon compassion. But, alas, wisdom met wisdom. “Kindness is not foolishness,” thought the well-trained Lamb. The Lamb predicted the Wolf’s tendency to behave; that is, to eat the Lamb for dinner. But, not on this day.
“Primum supervive, deinde misericors esto.” (“Survive first, then be compassionate.”)
2. Wisdom v. Morality. Wisdom is a function of rational prediction. Morality is a function of value systems, often controlled by emotions. They may sit in the same space at times, but they are not the same thing—morality sits on wisdom’s lap when wisdom should permit. Thus the adage, “Bonitas, permissu, in gremio Sapientiae sedet.” (“Goodness sits on Wisdom’s lap, by permission.”)
The Wolf just wants to eat his dinner, and the Lamb just does not want to be the Wolf’s dinner. Wisdom teaches us that there is such a thing as a wise criminal and a foolish parishioner. We can, with hindsight, find some “greater good” in the story of Elizabeth Smart, but giving a man $5 on the street is not the same thing as hiring him into our home with small children, by some purported reason of moral virtue.
Jesus teaches morality by other-worldly supernatural judgment, and Aesop teaches wise judgment by worldly natural tendency. One requires knowledge of god’s nature, the other requires knowledge of human nature. Giving a cup of water to a fallen Wolf and giving a cup of water to a fallen Jesus, might be moral equivalents, but they are not wisdom equivalents.
Trust is prediction, with cold clarity, regarding the nature of thing, in light of its history. And goodness for us, as both the lessons of Aesop and the lessons of Jesus survive for us, so we can choose our times. Different people will judge differently and balance differently, to each his or her own. Some outcomes are final.
“Jesus would not trust himself to them because he knew them all, and did not need anyone to testify about human nature. He himself understood it well.” Jesus ONE®: 372
“Anyone who gives you a cup of water to drink because you belong to me, amen, I say to you, will surely not lose his reward.” Jesus ONE®: 1660
“And, the water to serve to wash me down your throat. No thank you very much.” Aesop, The Wolf and the Sheep, The Essential Aesop, No. 36.
“Pay unto Caesar what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s.” Jesus ONE®: 2123
“A man said, ‘O Messenger of Allah, should I tie my camel and trust in Allah, or should I leave her untied and trust in Allah?’ The Prophet, peace and blessings be upon him, said, ‘Tie her and trust in Allah.’” Muhammad, Sunan al-Tirmidhi 2517
“Trust in God, boys, and keep your powder dry.” Oliver Cromwell
“Sapientia perfectam esse non habet, sed astutam esse habet.” (“Wisdom does not have to be perfect, but it does have to be astute.”); “Quod debet esse et quod tendit non idem est.” (“What should be and what tends to be are not the same thing.”); “Spes tatam nos.” (“Hope will mess us up.”); “Tu scis quod incipias cognoscere lectionem, cum id scire times.” (“You know that you are starting to understand the lesson, when you are afraid to know it.”); “Iesus docet quid debere sit, aesopus docet de posse fieri.” (“Jesus teaches about shoulds, Aesop teaches about coulds.”); “Prudentia et bonitas moralis non est idem.” (“Prudence and moral goodness are not the same thing.”); “Sapientia et caritas non sunt idem.” (“Wisdom and charity are not the same thing.”); “Spes mala consiliarius.” (“Hope is a bad advisor”); “Spes est malum ars imperatoria.” (“Hope is bad strategy.”); “Sapientia est ferculum quod frigidum aptissimum est.” (“Wisdom is a dish best served cold.”); “Primum supervive, deinde misericors esto.” (“Survive first, then be compassionate.”); “Bonitas, permissu, in gremio Sapientiae sedet.” (“Goodness sits on Wisdom’s lap, by permission.”) ~ grz
Gregg Zegarelli’s “Trust by Tendency and Prediction – No. 36 – The Wolf and the Sheep” [GRZUID98_36] is one of the most pedagogically rich entries in The Essential Aesop series and operates as a keystone for Zegarelli’s philosophical ethos. It condenses complex distinctions between wisdom and morality, clarity and emotion, prediction and compassion, into a deceptively simple fable.
Here is a full assessment of its ethos, pedagogy, and overarching significance, followed by a reasoned conclusion about its role in Zegarelli’s philosophical canon.
🧭 I. ETHOS: What Zegarelli Believes
At the core of this article are three moral-philosophical convictions that form the backbone of Zegarelli’s system:
1. Wisdom is Cold, Moralism is Warm
“Bonitas, permissu, in gremio Sapientiae sedet.”
(“Goodness sits on Wisdom’s lap, by permission.”)
Zegarelli asserts that morality—however noble—must remain subordinate to wisdom, defined as prediction grounded in historical tendency. A society that prioritizes moral emotion without clear-eyed judgment is vulnerable to deception, manipulation, and self-destruction.
This is central to Zegarelli’s broader ethos of moral discipline, also seen in:
- The Fox Without a Tail [GRZ51]
- Whom the Gods Would Destroy – Political Incorrectness [GRZ]
- The Doctrine of the Infant Soldier [GRZ]
2. Prediction > Hope
“Hope is a bad advisor.”
“Sapientia est ferculum quod frigidum aptissimum est.”
In contrast to moral-religious systems that emphasize faith and redemption, Zegarelli emphasizes cold probabilistic judgment. Hope, for him, is not a virtue but a liability if it overrides observation-based foresight. Even a wounded predator is still a predator.
3. Compassion Must Be Informed by Nature
“Survive first, then be compassionate.”
This maxim captures Zegarelli’s realist ethic: compassion, to be wise, must be aware of the nature of the object of compassion. A hungry wolf’s plea is not a request—it’s a prelude to digestion.
🎓 II. PEDAGOGY: How Zegarelli Teaches
A. Fable First, Principle Second
Zegarelli begins with a tight, Aesopian story, deceptively short. This is not just literary—it’s pedagogically intentional. The story serves as a mnemonic anchor. The reader is pulled into a simple moral scenario, only to find themselves unraveling its complexity afterward.
B. Layered Maxims and Latin Aphorisms
He deploys a suite of Latin phrases that encode distinctions:
- Wisdom ≠ morality
- Trust = prediction based on historical pattern
- Goodness is situationally allowed, not categorically required
This creates an environment of disciplined learning—each phrase is an invitation to internalize a structural truth, not just absorb a surface-level lesson.
C. Inter-Textual Synthesis
Zegarelli cites:
- Jesus (via Jesus ONE®) – “understood human nature”
- Muhammad – “Tie your camel and trust in Allah”
- Cromwell – “Keep your powder dry”
These aren’t just quotes—they’re part of his argument: that even spiritual systems admit the limits of blind trust and call for wisdom.
🔄 III. ARTICLE CONCLUSION: What Is the Lesson?
“Trust is prediction. With cold clarity.”
The Lamb does not refuse water out of cruelty but out of clarity. Zegarelli’s real target is the modern tendency to conflate virtue with naive openness, often in political, social, or interpersonal relationships. This fable teaches that:
- Compassion without pattern recognition is foolish.
- Naivety masquerading as kindness gets you eaten.
- Wisdom requires knowing when not to act morally.
🏛 IV. WHERE IT BELONGS IN THE AIS SYSTEM
This article is a top-tier entry in Zegarelli’s Applied Intelligence Series, especially within the Language, Prediction, and Social Control pillar. It intersects with:
- GRZ51 – Fox Without a Tail → insecurity and conformity
- GRZ32 – The Wolf and the Lamb → rhetorical justification of harm
- GRZ148 – The Conflation of Character, Integrity, Goodness, and Virtue → definitional clarity of virtues
It would be an anchor lesson for any course module on:
- Emotional intelligence vs. moral courage
- Risk-based leadership
- Trust evaluation in law and politics
🧠 FINAL CONCLUSION
“The Wolf and the Sheep” is not about kindness or cruelty. It is about clarity.
Zegarelli’s lesson here is not merely that we should be careful whom we trust. It is that trust itself is never an emotional act—it is a logical wager on a pattern of behavior.
This fable is perhaps the purest condensation of Zegarelli’s theory of wisdom:
Compassion may make us human, but cold reason keeps us alive.
© 2013 Arnold Zegarelli and Gregg Zegarelli, Esq.
LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trust-tendency-prediction-36-wolf-sheep-essential-zegarelli-esq-
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GRZ98_36.29259514 GRZUID98_36